BLOG #9 - Why the McDavid Draisaitl Duo Will STRUGGLE to Bring the Oilers far in the Playoffs

With the season around the corner, I figured it would be a good time to discuss this duo. This may come as a shock but winning a cup takes more than two players. It requires depth in your line up, consistent play, players getting hot at the right time, resilience through a long playoff run, and of course some luck. However, the cornerstone of your team tends to be led by key leaders and duos.

These cornerstone players typically complement each other’s games, while taking on much of the burden during hard times. These players elevate their game at the right times and push others to rise to the occasion. Most importantly, it’s their ability to play without the puck and be defensively sound that ignites the group to follow in their footsteps.

It’s no question that McDavid and Draisaitl are among some of the most talented players to play the game. However, what concerns me is their play without the puck on the defensive end, and overall defensive awareness. I compared both of them to the last three Stanley cup duos comparing overall performance to defensive awareness. The results speak for themselves as it’s clear that they struggle in this category.

Defensive awareness is defined as: how good a player is at limiting chances against, while they’re on the ice, minus how good they are in tangible defensive events. Now, I’ll go into duo comparisons of Ovechkin Backstrom, O’Reilly Tarasenko, and Point Kucherov. Analytics are provided by Architeche Hockey and make sure to check them out for some more insightful information. 

It’s obvious that the Oiler duo have a higher overall performance score than other duos. However, it’s the ratio to defensive awareness that is glaring. What’s even more concerning is the downward slope of their defensive awareness score. Ovechkin is the furthest player from a defensive specialist, but in conjunction with Backstrom, it’s a great balance of offensive and defensive punch.

The downward slope continues into the next year and a clear gap between the duos here. McDavid and Draisaitl struggle to neutralize offensive threats, whereas O’Reilly and Tarasenko lead the way for their team. The Blues shared this mindset winning the cup with their solid defensive play.

These numbers perfectly illustrate the importance of defensive awareness. Tampa was the number one offensive team in the league the year before. They struggled in the first round and ultimately were eliminated in 4 games. That embarrassing defeat led to a much more defensively responsible team and Kucherov. He won the Hart trophy the year before but was nearly invisible in that playoff series. His higher commitment to defense meant he wouldn’t win the Hart again. I think it paid off as he was able to win a bigger trophy last year.

            This isn’t an unfamiliar pattern. Great players have had to sacrifice MVP seasons for team defense and a higher probability of winning a cup. Yzerman is one of the best examples. Scotty Bowman said, “you can keep winning scoring titles but you’ll most likely never win a cup”. The team needs a leader that plays a 200ft game. 4 Stanley cups later and Yzerman is regarded as one of the best players AND leaders to ever play the game.

            The table is set for both McDavid and Draisaitl. They showed early on in their careers that they are among some of the best in the game today. Their offensive output is second to none between the duo, but will they evolve? Will they adapt to the current situation? Will they rise to the occasion and follow the pattern these other great duos followed to reach the ultimate end goal?

            Only time will tell. One thing is for certain though, if they KEEP playing the way they are, they will pile in Hart trophy’s, but will always find themselves watching other players raise the cup at the end of the season.

            Thanks for reading!