BLOG #12 - Shots, The Statistic That MATTERS PT 1
Analytics can sometimes be confusing. One thing is for certain, you need to shoot or tip a puck on net if your want to score. Some players shoot the puck way too much. They are taking low percentages chances and making the goalies job too easy. On the other hand, some players tend to never shoot the puck and try to force plays which tend to lead to turnovers.
Different types of players lead to different shot totals. Some players are shooters and will have 8 shots a game. Players that fall into this category would be Mackinnon or Ovechkin. Playmakers tend to opt to distribute the puck more often like Thornton or Backstrom. Then, you have overall dynamic players who are able to get shots off consistently and create the highest probable shot opportunities like Crosby and McDavid.
Regardless of who you are, you have to produce consistent shots on net if you expect to score goals and overall offense. So, what’s the optimal number of shots?
Here is an example of the shot analysis study from a couple players I performed a few years ago
The Sweet Spot
3.18 shots per game. After a full breakdown of the top NHL goal scorers shot totals throughout the last season, the overall average was 3.18 shots per game. 3.8 was the number of games they went without a single shot. The results illustrate that these players are able to consistently get shots on net and execute at a consistent rate.
Basically, I just have to shoot the puck more and I’ll score more goals? Simple answers yes-ish. However, this only works short term. I’ll give you a 3-step process to analyzing your shot chances and help you make the most of your opportunities. This will allow you to understand where you’re getting chances and adjust your game one-shot chance at a time.
Shot Analysis
Step 1 – Analyze your last 5 games
Step 2 - Did you average 4 shots a game? If not, how can you produce more shots and only move on to step 3 once you average 4 shots per game.
Step 3 - Did you average 3 shots per game in the red zone? (In between the dots and top of the circle for forwards/ In between the dots and to the blueline for D man) If not, how can you create more shots from this area and only move on to step 4 once you average 3 shots in the red zone per game.
Step 4 - What’s your shot selection look like on each shot? This takes deeper analysis and understanding of goalie movements. How can you optimize your shot selection.
Use this analysis to breakdown your shot opportunities and optimize your overall chances. It starts with shot quantity and then you can move to the quality of your shots. Work towards averaging 4 shots a game with 3 in the red zone and I guarantee you will be producing consistent offense in no time!
Thanks for reading!